You make decisions every day of your life.

And there are some decisions that feel more significant than others.

They are high stakes because they require commitment of your time, resources, or energy.

Decision science gives us tools to evaluate options.

There can be a question of opportunity cost — what you give up in when you say yes to something.

But the problem really lies with uncertainty.

No outcome is guaranteed.

So how can you reduce the uncertainty around your decision?

You can reduce the unknowns, and identify your knowns.

You actually know more than you think.

Your Knowns

Your knowns include your dreams and desires, what you are willing to commit to, what energizes you, what your values are. These are what comprise your internal compass.

Your professional history and track record of performance also falls within this category.

Your knowns also include external factors. This can be proven strategies and real constraints.

Your Unknown Knowns

There are also knowns that you may have overlooked or dismissed. You are taking for granted that you know certain relevant facts and variables. They could be bits of your internal compass that you haven’t yet explored or defined.

When you can pause to explore, they will emerge to your awareness.

Ask what external factors exist as known that you may not have considered.

Your Known Unknowns

And then there are factors that you don’t have complete knowledge of, but if you were to conduct research or consult with an expert, you could fill in the knowledge you need.

These are your Known Unknowns.

If a decision you are facing seems like you don’t have enough information, chances are you would gain a lot from filling in some knowledge gaps so that you can make a more informed decision.

Your Unknown Unknowns

Once you have documented the above three categories, you are left with the only true uncertainty in the equation: your unknown unknowns. These are factors that you cannot predict. They could include pandemics, changes in the market, or natural disasters.

The next time you are facing a decision, you can use the Rumsfeld Matrix to get clear on what you know and what you don’t know.

What decision are you facing, and how will you identify your knowns and reduce your unknowns?

Love,

Audrey